In response to the Vernon Morning Star Article, on October 2, 2019, the following was posted on the Cindy Derkaz Facebook page:
338Canada bases its projection on national polls, demographics and past results. In 2015, the North Okanagan-Shuswap voted 40% Conservative, 30% Liberal, 25% NDP and 5% Green.
40% can elect another back-bencher Conservative MP. It could also elect the first ever female MP in the North Okanagan Shuswap.
338Canada doesn’t get to decide that. You do.”
The article is shown below.
Conservatives leading in North Okanagan-Shuswap riding: 338Canada poll
The Conservative Party is leading the pack in North Okanagan.
The North Okanagan-Shuswap riding will likely remain blue, according to 338Canada’s projections, which was updated Tuesday (Oct. 1).
The project created by Philippe J. Fournier, a political contributor to L’actualité and Maclean’s, said the North Okanagan-Shuswap riding is a “safe” bet for incumbent MP Mel Arnold and the Conservative Party of Canada with the popular vote projected at 41.3 per cent if the vote was held today.
Cindy Derkaz and the Liberals are currently trailing with 21.4 per cent according to public opinion polls, while the Green Party’s Marc Reinarz and New Democratic Party’s Harwinder Sandhu come in a close third at 17.4 and 16.3 per cent respectively. The People’s Party of Canada candidate Kyle Delfing is projected to win 3.2 per cent of the popular vote.
Further to the west, Kelowna-Lake Country is likely to follow suit and swing from a Liberal-held riding to a Conservative riding with current polls projecting 42.1 per cent of voters would cast a ballot for Conservative candidate Tracy Gray if the vote were held today.
British Columbia as a whole appears to be leaning towards the Conservatives with 31.9 per cent of the popular vote, however, that’s only four percentage points ahead of the Liberals at 27.4 per cent.
The NDP and Greens are tied with 18 per cent of the projected provincial vote – with most of the Green’s support coming from Vancouver Island. The PPC sits at the bottom with a 3.3 per cent of the projected popular vote.
Comments from Cindy
This is a flashback to 2015, when a poll was published that NDP would take riding with 40%. Projections come out with no basis. This company, 338Canada, is primarily using national and historical data but has nothing to do with what is going on in our riding on the ground.
We have done 27,000 attempts with door knocking and phoning in this campaign and there is no sign of support for NDP and Green. The battle is between the Liberals and the Conservatives.
Make note that 60% of the voters in this riding do not want the Conservatives. The way to achieve this is to vote Liberal — only the Conservatives or Liberals will be elected to power in 2019. If you want a progressive government, with appropriate immigration, climate change, middle class and poverty level tax reduction, indigenous support for housing and water, and other progressive policies, then voting Liberal is your only way to go.
If you have Facebook access, please comment as such on the Vernon Morning Star post, or write a Letter to the Editor of the Vernon Morning Star. Let’s inundate them with our polite but firm dispute of this poll’s information.